NFL Thanksgiving Day Bettors Guide: Lions, Cowboys and Packers … oh my!

12:30 p.m., Lions by 10 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: The Lions have lost seven straight Thanksgiving games SU, three against the Bears, the last three under Dan Campbell. They also have injury concerns on a short week. Still, betting on Detroit this season has been a money maker and there is no sense getting off the Lions’ train here. The Lions have lost only twice ATS, even with some of these big spreads, with Campbell’s foot constantly on the accelerator. The Bears have suffered two tough losses in a row at home against divisional foes and it’s going to be hard picking up the morale in just a few days’ time. Cracks are appearing in the strength of the team, the run defense. Jahmyr Gibbs could break loose against a unit that has allowed eight runs of 15 or more yards over the last five games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
4:30 p.m., Cowboys by 3 ½, 37 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: What a turkey. The calamitous Cowboys shouldn’t be giving anybody more than a FG but this Giants team is nearly as bad as any that has worn the proud uniform. At least Dallas comes off a victory they should have blown after being outplayed most of the game. The Boys have dominated the series, even with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Rush is also the better of the two QBs, even now that Drew Lock is starting with even shorter prep time. He’s thrown for over 600 yards the last two weeks and he’ll be facing a Giants defense that looks spent. Not so the Cowboys D, which does at least one thing well—get after the passer. And for once, Mike McCarthy isn’t losing the coaching matchup.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the over.
8:20 p.m., Packers by 3 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Dolphins have revived their playoff hopes with Tua Tagovailoa leading them to three straight wins but those have come against the Rams, Raiders and Patriots, all in warm weather. This is clearly a step up in class in a somewhat harsh environment at Lambeau Field, with 20 mph winds bringing the wind chill down to 12 degrees. We saw how the Kansas City cold disrupted the Fins’ timing-based offense in last year’s playoffs. The Packers will try to exploit Miami’s meh run defense with power-running Josh Jacobs to set up Jordan Love’s play action game. The Dolphins’ pass rush leaves a lot to be desired so Love should have time to pick out receivers. Hate the hook but it’s either Green Bay or nothing.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under.